Back to 2007 price levels?

With the recent article in the Nanaimo Daily News stating that we are only down 3% (of course we aren't), it was time to take a look at how far back price levels have fallen. Due to low levels of sales in some months, the average can very greatly from month to month. It just so happened that the YOY decline for March was only 3% due to statistical variance.

Here is a look at the average and median monthly prices since the beginning of 2007:

Average Median

2007
J 309 296
F 306 302
M 329 324
A 325 308
M 346 327
J 333 326
J 352 333
A 346 335
S 360 345
O 367 360
N 364 365
D 377 365
2008
J 360 357
F 371 358
M 343 335
A 373 356
M 363 350
J 372 362
J 364 343
A 373 365
S 354 343
O 373 350
N 379 372
D 365 338
2009
J 348 334
F 326 310
M 334 320

Source: VIREB Statistics

From September 2007 to August 2008, the average was never below 360 and the median didnt go below 343, except for March 2008 were the numbers were 343/335 respectively. Using the YOY statistics, we get a decline of 3% for avg and 4.5% for median. This is due to the fact this month was a statistical irregularity, since it is way below all the other months around it. Averaging the average price of the first 3 months of 2008 and 2009, we get averages of 362 and 336, which signifies an average price drop of 7%. The average of the median prices for the first 3 months of 2008 and 2009 drops from 350 to 321, or a fall of 8%.

Prices were fairly stagnant in 2008 but in 2009 we are starting to see the prices reach lower levels. Sections in red indicate were current price levels have fallen back to. It is possible to say prices are back to 2 years ago pricing. If someone purchased 2 years ago, they likely would be in a break-even or losing position depending on realtor fees and equity gained. Since sales are continuing to be dismal and inventory is still ballooning, expect further price declines. How far back will prices fall?